Implications of HTML5 in mobile applications

The arrival of HTML5 is expected to have significant impact on the mobile application ecosystem. A number of new features will be incorporated into the standard but a few particular improvements will have the most affect on the mobile software market. The ability for web applications to store data on the device, standardized API's to access location data, and easier control of video and audio content without plug-ins will make it easier for developers to create robust applications that are easily ported across devices. While developers' jobs will get a lot easier with HTML5, demand for browser plug-ins and native applications will remain strong, especially in high end devices.

Work on HTML5 began in 2004 to standardize technology that was cutting edge then but is now more main stream. Running video and audio on the web and accessing location data on devices are technologies that have evolved over the past six years and incorporating it into the Web standard is overdue. As we gaze into the future and innovators dream up new user interfaces, HTML5 seems to be standardizing yesterday's technology.

The ability for web applications to store data on devices and access location API's will allow these applications to compete with today's mainstream native applications but innovation in device UI's will provide plenty of opportunities for native developers. Only native applications will be able to leverage device sensors such as gyroscopes, accelerometers, digital compasses, and cameras, components that will be key to applications that create a differentiated user experiences. These differentiated experiences, among other things, will incorporate gesture commands and improved location accuracy through dead reckoning.

Emerging technologies such as augmented reality will drive continued demand for plug-ins and provide plenty of opportunity for companies such as Adobe and Microsoft to provide add on capabilities to standard browsers. Innovative companies will continue to develop new plug-ins that support computer vision technology that dynamically meshes data from the real world with the internet. This may be the new way we interact with the web, providing opportunities for new technologies which will eventually make their ways into new standards.

HTML5 will have a much larger impact on lower end devices that run proprietary operating systems and do not include sensors. The new standard will allow developers to manage platform fragmentation which is much more prominent in the non-smartphone market. As applications built using HTML5 move into mass market adoption, mobile advertising will become a more popular way for developers to generate revenues. Users of lower end phones are also less willing to pay for applications limiting subscriber based business models.

Developers that are looking to compete in the ultra competitive smartphone application market should not give up on plug-ins like Flash or native platforms as they will provide support for the most differentiated experiences. Media companies and developers targeting mass market phones with advertising based business models should be focusing on HTML5.

 

Mobile Widget White Paper

As part of our research of the mobile widget market we recently released a white paper providing an overview of the market and presenting a business case. You can download the paper here. http//www.arcchart.com/reports/widget_wp.asp

Could Google Buy Motorola?

Now that Google is in the device business, could they be looking at Motorola's handset division as an acquisition target?.... Don't laugh it could happen. Here's why.

1. Google gains hardware expertise– While Google has great software developers they do not have a clue about how to build a great mobile phone. Some of the limitations of the HTC 1 emerged due to Google's insistence on dictating all the hardware specs to HTC. The Nexus One is reportedly very fast and designed by a 3^rd party design shop so it seems that Google has learned their lesson. Regardless of Google's increased self awareness, competitive pressures emerging between Google and hardware manufactures will restrict the integration of the best hardware and best software technology to create industry leading devices. An integrated hardware & software company can freely exchange IP, leading to more innovative and efficient offerings. A combined company will also provide Google complete control of all implementations of the Android OS on Motorola devices reducing fragmentation.
   

   
   

2. Google competitors are device manufactures – Nokia is competing against Google with OVI, Microsoft has the Danger hardware business, and Samsung is increasingly competing with Google through its app store and new proprietary operating system. And of course there is Apple and Palm. Apple's acquisition of Quattro Wireless last week unmistakably signals that Apple is gearing up to go head to head with Google.
   

   
   

3. Device manufactures may abandon Android – The launch of Nexus One is a clear indication that Google is not afraid to compete with its partners. Motorola's recovery strategy is based on Android and Google has torpedoed this strategy by launching the Nexus One. The new Google device is based on Android version 2.1 which will compete with the Motorola Droid based on Android 2.0. This puts the Droid at a diminished competitive position. It is becoming clear that if Google keeps the most advanced Android code for its own device experience, Motorola will have a hard time competing with a consistently inferior OS. Other leading OEM's are not taking the bait and are investing in their own software platforms so they can differentiate their offerings. Samsung has announced "bada" and Nokia is overhauling S60. HTC also announced today they are launching a Smartphone based on BREW of all things which may be anther indication of waning support for Android. Without major device manufactures launching compelling Android devices, Google looses influence in the market and will not have to power to change it. Google's ultimate goal.
   

   
   

4. Google can afford Motorola and it is for sale-For more than a year Motorola has had the for sale sign out side the handset business which is probably worth $ 1-2 billion USD. Google has over $21 billion in the bank.
   

I think Google would rather not be in the hardware business but it seems they are already in it, why not go all in.