The arrival of HTML5 is expected to have significant impact on the mobile application ecosystem. A number of new features will be incorporated into the standard but a few particular improvements will have the most affect on the mobile software market. The ability for web applications to store data on the device, standardized API's to access location data, and easier control of video and audio content without plug-ins will make it easier for developers to create robust applications that are easily ported across devices. While developers' jobs will get a lot easier with HTML5, demand for browser plug-ins and native applications will remain strong, especially in high end devices.
Work on HTML5 began in 2004 to standardize technology that was cutting edge then but is now more main stream. Running video and audio on the web and accessing location data on devices are technologies that have evolved over the past six years and incorporating it into the Web standard is overdue. As we gaze into the future and innovators dream up new user interfaces, HTML5 seems to be standardizing yesterday's technology.
The ability for web applications to store data on devices and access location API's will allow these applications to compete with today's mainstream native applications but innovation in device UI's will provide plenty of opportunities for native developers. Only native applications will be able to leverage device sensors such as gyroscopes, accelerometers, digital compasses, and cameras, components that will be key to applications that create a differentiated user experiences. These differentiated experiences, among other things, will incorporate gesture commands and improved location accuracy through dead reckoning.
Emerging technologies such as augmented reality will drive continued demand for plug-ins and provide plenty of opportunity for companies such as Adobe and Microsoft to provide add on capabilities to standard browsers. Innovative companies will continue to develop new plug-ins that support computer vision technology that dynamically meshes data from the real world with the internet. This may be the new way we interact with the web, providing opportunities for new technologies which will eventually make their ways into new standards.
HTML5 will have a much larger impact on lower end devices that run proprietary operating systems and do not include sensors. The new standard will allow developers to manage platform fragmentation which is much more prominent in the non-smartphone market. As applications built using HTML5 move into mass market adoption, mobile advertising will become a more popular way for developers to generate revenues. Users of lower end phones are also less willing to pay for applications limiting subscriber based business models.
Developers that are looking to compete in the ultra competitive smartphone application market should not give up on plug-ins like Flash or native platforms as they will provide support for the most differentiated experiences. Media companies and developers targeting mass market phones with advertising based business models should be focusing on HTML5.
